Introduction
Card counting is a strategic approach to blackjack that gives players a mathematical edge over the casino by tracking the ratio of high to low cards remaining in the deck. When more high cards (10s, face cards, Aces) remain, the player has an advantage; when more low cards remain, the house has an advantage. This cheat sheet covers everything from basic counting systems to advanced techniques, betting strategies, and casino countermeasures. While card counting is legal, casinos may ask skilled counters to leave, so proper camouflage techniques are essential.
Core Card Counting Concepts
Key Principles
- Advantage Principle: High cards (10, J, Q, K, A) favor the player; low cards (2-6) favor the dealer
- Running Count: Track the imbalance of high vs. low cards as they’re played
- True Count: Adjust running count based on remaining decks to get accurate advantage
- Bet Variation: Increase bets when the count gives you an advantage
- Strategic Deviation: Modify basic strategy based on count when advantage is significant
Card Counting Impact by Play Type
| Advantage of High Cards | Reasoning |
|---|
| Blackjack payout (3:2) | Higher concentration of Aces and 10s increases natural blackjack frequency |
| Double down opportunities | More 10-value cards improve double down success |
| Player drawing to stiff hands (12-16) | Fewer small cards reduces bust probability |
| Insurance bets | More 10-value cards make insurance profitable |
| Dealer drawing to stiff hands | More 10-value cards increase dealer bust frequency |
Counting Systems
Hi-Lo System (Most Popular)
| Card Value | Count |
|---|
| 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 | +1 |
| 7, 8, 9 | 0 |
| 10, J, Q, K, A | -1 |
Process:
- Start count at 0 with fresh deck/shoe
- Add or subtract as each card is revealed
- Convert running count to true count by dividing by decks remaining
- Use true count to gauge advantage and adjust bets
Betting Correlation (BC): 0.97
Playing Efficiency (PE): 0.51
Insurance Correlation (IC): 0.76
Balanced System: Count returns to 0 with complete deck
Hi-Opt I System (Intermediate)
| Card Value | Count |
|---|
| 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 | +1 |
| 8, 9 | 0 |
| 10, J, Q, K | -1 |
| A | 0 |
Pros: Improved betting efficiency, more accurate for betting decisions
Cons: Separate ace side count needed, slightly more complex
BC: 0.88 PE: 0.61 IC: 0.85 (with Ace side count)
KO System (Unbalanced)
| Card Value | Count |
|---|
| 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 | +1 |
| 8, 9 | 0 |
| 10, J, Q, K, A | -1 |
Pivotal Count: Start at -4 per deck (e.g., -24 for 6 decks)
Pros: No true count conversion needed
Cons: Less precise than balanced systems
BC: 0.98 PE: 0.55 IC: 0.78
Advanced Counting Systems Comparison
| System | Complexity | Betting Correlation | Playing Efficiency | Insurance Correlation |
|---|
| Wong Halves | High | 0.99 | 0.56 | 0.72 |
| Omega II | High | 0.92 | 0.67 | 0.85 |
| Red 7 | Medium | 0.97 | 0.54 | 0.76 |
| KISS | Low | 0.98 | 0.37 | 0.78 |
| Zen Count | High | 0.96 | 0.63 | 0.85 |
Converting Running Count to True Count
Basic Conversion
True Count = Running Count ÷ Decks Remaining
Deck Estimation Methods
- Visual Method: Estimate based on discard tray fullness
- Card Depth Method: Measure depth of cards in shoe
- Time-Based Method: Estimate based on time elapsed and cards per hour
- Fixed Divisor Method: Use half the original decks as divisor throughout
Quick Calculation Tips
- Round to nearest half-deck for practical play
- Practice by estimating decks from known shoe sizes
- For multi-deck games, use simple benchmarks:
- 1/4 shoe used = ~4.5 decks remain (6-deck game)
- 1/2 shoe used = ~3 decks remain
- 3/4 shoe used = ~1.5 decks remain
Betting Strategy
Bet Sizing Based on True Count
| True Count | Advantage | Recommended Bet |
|---|
| ≤ 0 | House Advantage | 1 unit (table minimum) |
| +1 | Approximately Even | 1-2 units |
| +2 | ~0.5% Player Advantage | 2-4 units |
| +3 | ~1.0% Player Advantage | 4-8 units |
| +4 | ~1.5% Player Advantage | 8-12 units |
| +5+ | ~2.0%+ Player Advantage | 12-16 units (or maximum) |
Betting Ramp Styles
| Style | Characteristics | Pros | Cons |
|---|
| Linear | Bet increases in direct proportion to advantage | Simple to implement | More detectable pattern |
| Conservative | Small increases up to true count +3, then larger jumps | Less variance, less attention | Lower theoretical win rate |
| Aggressive | Large bet jumps at lower counts | Maximizes winnings on good counts | Higher variance, more detectable |
| Randomized | Vary bet sizes within a range for each true count | Harder for casino to detect | Requires more practice and planning |
Kelly Criterion Bet Sizing
Kelly fraction = Advantage ÷ Variance
For blackjack (approximation):
- Bet = Bankroll × Advantage ÷ 1.5
- Example: With $10,000 bankroll and 1% advantage, optimal bet is approximately $67
Strategy Deviations Based on Count
Insurance Decisions
- Take insurance when true count is ≥ +3 (Hi-Lo)
- Never take insurance when count is below threshold
Index Numbers for Hi-Lo System (Illustrative 18 Plays)
| Play | Index | Explanation |
|---|
| 16 vs. 10 | 0 | Stand instead of hit when true count ≥ 0 |
| 15 vs. 10 | +4 | Stand instead of hit when true count ≥ +4 |
| 12 vs. 3 | -2 | Hit instead of stand when true count ≤ -2 |
| 12 vs. 2 | +3 | Stand instead of hit when true count ≥ +3 |
| 11 vs. A | +1 | Double instead of hit when true count ≥ +1 |
| 10 vs. A | +4 | Double instead of hit when true count ≥ +4 |
| 9 vs. 2 | +1 | Double instead of hit when true count ≥ +1 |
| 10,10 vs. 5 | +5 | Split instead of stand when true count ≥ +5 |
| 10,10 vs. 6 | +4 | Split instead of stand when true count ≥ +4 |
| A,9 vs. 2 | +1 | Stand instead of double when true count ≥ +1 |
| A,8 vs. 6 | +1 | Double instead of stand when true count ≥ +1 |
| A,7 vs. 2 | +1 | Double instead of stand when true count ≥ +1 |
| 8,8 vs. A | +3 | Stand instead of split when true count ≥ +3 |
| 9,9 vs. 7 | +3 | Stand instead of split when true count ≥ +3 |
| 6,6 vs. 2 | +2 | Split instead of hit when true count ≥ +2 |
| Insurance | +3 | Take insurance when true count ≥ +3 |
| 16 vs. Dealer 9 | +5 | Stand instead of hit when true count ≥ +5 |
| 13 vs. Dealer 2 | -1 | Hit instead of stand when true count ≤ -1 |
Simplified Illustrated Basic Strategy Matrix for Reference
This shows basic strategy without count adjustments
Hard Hands
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 T A
17+ S S S S S S S S S S
16 S S S S S H H H H H
15 S S S S S H H H H H
13-14S S S S S H H H H H
12 H H S S S H H H H H
11 D D D D D D D D D H
10 D D D D D D D D H H
9 H D D D D H H H H H
8- H H H H H H H H H H
Soft Hands
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 T A
A,9 S S S S S S S S S S
A,8 S S S S S S S S S S
A,7 S D D D D S S H H H
A,6 H D D D D H H H H H
A,5 H H D D D H H H H H
A,4 H H D D D H H H H H
A,3 H H H D D H H H H H
A,2 H H H D D H H H H H
Pairs
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 T A
A,A P P P P P P P P P P
T,T S S S S S S S S S S
9,9 P P P P P S P P S S
8,8 P P P P P P P P P P
7,7 P P P P P P H H H H
6,6 P P P P P H H H H H
5,5 D D D D D D D D H H
4,4 H H H P P H H H H H
3,3 P P P P P P H H H H
2,2 P P P P P P H H H H
Key: S=Stand, H=Hit, D=Double, P=Split
Team Play Techniques
Basic Team Positions
| Role | Function | Skills Required |
|---|
| Spotter | Counts cards at table with minimum bets | Accurate counting, patience |
| Big Player | Enters table when count is favorable | Betting strategy, basic strategy |
| Controller | Supervises operation, handles bankroll | Game selection, management |
| Gorilla | Bets big without counting, receives signals | Acting skills, betting discipline |
Communication Systems
| Method | Description | Detectability |
|---|
| Verbal Codes | Predetermined phrases signal count | Medium |
| Body Language | Posture, hand positions indicate count | Low |
| Betting Signals | Chip handling, placement conveys information | Low |
| Electronic | Hidden devices transmit count information | High (if detected) |
Team Play Advantages
- Reduced variance through shared bankroll
- Multiple spotters can cover more tables
- Big player can avoid suspicion by only playing positive counts
- More difficult for casino to detect systematic advantage play
Camouflage and Cover
Behavioral Camouflage
| Technique | Implementation | Purpose |
|---|
| Social Playing | Chat with dealers and players | Appear recreational |
| Inconsistent Play | Make occasional small basic strategy errors | Hide counting expertise |
| Alcohol Consumption | Order drinks (but don’t consume) | Project recreational image |
| Tipping | Tip dealers occasionally | Build goodwill, appear generous |
| Emotional Reactions | Show excitement at wins, disappointment at losses | Disguise analytical approach |
| Varied Bet Sizing | Make occasional off-count bets | Break pattern recognition |
Advanced Cover Plays
- Occasionally take even-money insurance with blackjack regardless of count
- Mix in some basic strategy deviations even on neutral counts
- Use proper cover betting before leaving a table
- Split 10s occasionally in obvious situations
- Appear to make emotional decisions on crucial hands
- Bet more on first hand after shuffle (when count is 0)
Casino Countermeasures
Detection Methods Used by Casinos
| Method | Description | Counter-Tactics |
|---|
| Bet Spread Tracking | Monitoring bet variation patterns | Use smaller spreads, randomize betting |
| Play Variation | Observing deviations from basic strategy | Keep deviations to crucial hands only |
| Player Tracking Software | Database of known counters | Change appearance, use aliases |
| RFID Chip Tracking | Monitors precise betting patterns | Vary bet timing and sizing irregularly |
| Facial Recognition | Computer identification of known counters | Subtle appearance changes, hat brims |
| Back-Counting Identification | Spotting players who only join positive counts | Wait for shuffle after positive counts occasionally |
Casino Defense Tactics
| Tactic | Description | Player Response |
|---|
| Frequent Shuffling | Shuffling before penetration reaches 75% | Find deeper games, adjust count significance |
| Heat from Floor | Increased scrutiny from staff | Take breaks, slow down, reduce bet spread |
| Flat Betting Restrictions | “No mid-shoe entry” rules | Wait for shuffle before joining |
| Continuous Shuffle Machines | Never-ending shuffle eliminates counting | Avoid these games completely |
| Barring Players | Asking counters to leave | Leave respectfully, change venues, disguise |
| Reduced Penetration | Cutting off more cards before dealing | Adjust advantage calculations, find better games |
Game Selection and Conditions
Favorable Rule Variations
| Rule | Advantage Impact | Notes |
|---|
| S17 (dealer stands on soft 17) | +0.2% | Significantly better than H17 |
| DAS (double after split) | +0.14% | Important for optimal play |
| LSR (late surrender) | +0.08% | Valuable option in high-count situations |
| RSA (resplit aces) | +0.08% | Less common but valuable |
| Deep Penetration (>75%) | +0.25%+ | Critical for meaningful counting advantage |
| Single/Double Deck | +0.25%+ | Easier to get significant true count swings |
Unfavorable Rule Variations
| Rule | Advantage Impact | Notes |
|---|
| 6:5 Blackjack Payout | -1.4% | Makes game virtually uncountable |
| H17 (dealer hits soft 17) | -0.2% | Standard in many casinos |
| No DAS | -0.14% | Reduces doubling opportunities |
| CSMs (continuous shuffle machines) | Eliminates counting | Avoid completely |
| No Doubles on Soft Hands | -0.14% | Severe limitation on advantage |
| Poor Penetration (<50%) | Makes counting ineffective | Shuffle too frequent for advantage to build |
Optimal Conditions Checklist
- Deep penetration (75%+ of cards dealt before shuffle)
- Favorable rules (S17, DAS, LSR if possible)
- Adequate bet spread allowed (1-12 minimum)
- Reasonable heat level (low scrutiny)
- Manageable table speed (40-80 hands per hour ideal)
- Comfortable environment for extended play
Bankroll Management
Bankroll Requirements
| Counting System | Skill Level | Min Bankroll for $5-$100 Spread | Risk of Ruin |
|---|
| Hi-Lo | Beginner | $8,000 | ~5% |
| Hi-Lo | Intermediate | $5,000 | ~5% |
| Hi-Lo | Expert | $4,000 | ~5% |
| Advanced Systems | Expert | $3,000 | ~5% |
Risk of Ruin Relationship
- Double the bankroll = square the risk of ruin
- Examples:
- $4,000 bankroll = 5% risk of ruin
- $8,000 bankroll = 0.25% risk of ruin
- $12,000 bankroll = 0.0625% risk of ruin
Trip Bankroll vs. Total Bankroll
- Trip Bankroll: Amount taken to casino for single session/trip
- Total Bankroll: Complete funds allocated to blackjack
- Recommended Trip Bankroll: 10-20% of total bankroll
- Never risk entire bankroll on one trip
Expected Win Rates
Theoretical Win Rate Calculation
Hourly Win Rate = Advantage × Average Bet × Hands per Hour
Example Win Rates by Conditions
| Game Conditions | Bet Spread | Expected Hourly Win | Variance |
|---|
| 6D, 75% pen, good rules | $5-$100 | $15-25/hr | High |
| 2D, 75% pen, good rules | $10-$150 | $35-50/hr | Medium |
| 1D, 60% pen, good rules | $25-$200 | $75-100/hr | Lower |
| 6D, CSM, any rules | Any | Negative expectation | N/A |
| 6D, 6:5 BJ payout | Any | Negative expectation | N/A |
Factors Affecting Win Rate
- Deck penetration (deeper = higher win rate)
- Number of decks (fewer = higher win rate)
- Rule variations (better rules = higher win rate)
- Bet spread (wider = higher win rate, but more detection risk)
- Playing accuracy (fewer errors = higher win rate)
- Game speed (more hands per hour = higher hourly win rate)
Common Challenges and Solutions
Challenge: Mental Fatigue
- Solution: Practice mental focus exercises
- Solution: Take breaks every 45-60 minutes
- Solution: Limit sessions to 3-4 hours maximum
- Prevention: Regular practice away from casino pressure
Challenge: Bet Spread Restrictions
- Solution: Find more tolerant casinos
- Solution: Use team play tactics
- Solution: Work with smaller advantage but less detection
- Prevention: Scout casinos before serious play
Challenge: Casino Heat
- Solution: Reduce bet spread temporarily
- Solution: Leave table/casino when heat increases
- Solution: Rotate between multiple casinos
- Prevention: Effective camouflage from the beginning
Challenge: Bankroll Depletion
- Solution: Step down to lower limits
- Solution: Take extended break until bankroll replenished
- Solution: Review play for possible mistakes
- Prevention: Strict bankroll management from start
Resources for Continued Learning
Essential Books
- “Beat the Dealer” by Edward O. Thorp (foundational text)
- “Blackjack Attack” by Don Schlesinger (advanced concepts)
- “Professional Blackjack” by Stanford Wong (practical application)
- “Blackbelt in Blackjack” by Arnold Snyder (advanced techniques)
Practice Tools
- Casino Verite (simulation software)
- Blackjack Apprenticeship Drills
- CVData (analysis software)
- Counting practice apps for smartphones
Online Communities
- Blackjack Apprenticeship
- Green Chip (advantage play forum)
- DiceTrip (gambling mathematicians)
Training Routines
- Count through full deck in under 30 seconds
- Practice true count conversion with partial shoe
- Drill index plays with flashcards
- Simulate casino distractions during practice
This cheat sheet provides comprehensive information on card counting in blackjack. Remember that while card counting is legal, casinos reserve the right to refuse service to any player. Always maintain proper etiquette and be prepared to leave respectfully if asked.
